2025 NFL Season: Predicting All 272 Regular-Season Games

Welcome back to my annual exercise of predicting all 272 NFL regular-season games. The theme this year was restraint. This time of year, we’re often swept away by countless narratives, including the idea that there are certain teams preparing to cross a threshold from good to great. (This year’s Broncos come to mind.) With that comes the urge to put the team in a position to win its division or increase its win total like the Commanders did when they shocked the football world last year. The Commanders are now considered a hot team to perhaps make another leap, but are we going to overlook the rigors of their schedule and simply fast-pass Washington to the top of the NFC East—a division that contains the reigning Super Bowl champions?

As I write this, the Cowboys are marred in another idiotic mess of their own making , which led to Micah Parsons’s trade request. Though the last time Jerry Jones insulted a star player this deeply (back in 1993 with Emmitt Smith), the team won 12 games and a Super Bowl. The Dallas roster is still solid. Along those lines, Aaron Rodgers has looked, well, like a 41-year-old working with all new receivers for the first time. Still, am I really going to dip the Steelers below .500 for the first time in Mike Tomlin’s coaching career?

There are three teams in particular on this list—the Cardinals, Jaguars and Panthers—that I expect I will end up wrong about. However, this is the point of the exercise. As I say every year, it’s easy for someone to go through a team’s schedule and say, ‘Oh sure, nine wins.’ The issue is ignoring the context of everything else happening around those teams. It all matters.

So while these may be the record predictions you agree with least, I want to encourage you to focus on the process itself. Every other pie-in-the-sky win-loss projection that you see is simply feeding you dessert. This version is forcing you to eat some damn vegetables.

Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images

Ready? Let’s dive in. And check out the full projected playoff seedings at the bottom.

AFC EAST

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Buffalo Bills (12–5)

Projecting the Bills to win the AFC East was the easiest and safest part of this venture. Buffalo has a clear advantage in nearly every category on its roster over every other team in the division. If you look at the losses on the schedule, one in particular stands out: Carolina after the bye. For a team that can sometimes get in its own head, I wanted to have the Bills lose an absolute head-scratcher when it was clear the team was looking ahead to a far more consequential matchup against the 2024 conference champion Chiefs. (I’m bringing this up since I know it will be the top complaint among people reading this). I continued Buffalo’s tradition of closing the season strong after similarly solid finishes every year since 2020.

New England Patriots (8–9)

Different iterations of this exercise had me flipping between eight and nine wins, though the one victory I want to focus on is the post-bye win over Buffalo at home—at a time when the Bills should be rounding into peak condition. I wanted this to stand out as a proof-of-concept victory for Mike Vrabel and the Patriots, a team that I believe will be absolutely thorny for opponents all year but have moments of perplexing silliness and underwhelm. Case in point: a sloppy loss to the clearly inferior Saints in Week 6 and a close loss to the Falcons at home in Week 9. This would seem to be the rhythm for a team probably a year from actual liftoff as a playoff contender, though I wanted to illustrate progress and get Vrabel into position where he should be (rightfully) attaining Coach of the Year votes.

New York Jets (7–10)

A quiet and distraction-free Jets environment may only lead to a slight increase in victories over last year’s bottoming-out campaign. But now that the team is able to be left alone, we’ll see a more rational and consistent product. This Jets team is going to run the ball, which will allow it to keep some games close. I have the Jets going 1–1 in what I would term “revenge” games that will be obvious storylines. I think the Jets will come out with some energy and a bit of that new coaching staff mystique against Aaron Rodgers in the opener. This defense, while under a different coordinator, has been around Rodgers for two seasons and has an understanding of how he operates. However, I think the Jets will get pummeled by former interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich, now the coordinator of an underwhelming Falcons defense that could potentially surprise people if the right pieces develop. I think fans will leave with a sweeter taste in their mouths after watching this team climb out of a 2–6 hole to start the season and log a four-game winning streak in the leaner months of the season with little to play for.

Miami Dolphins (6–11)

This was an exercise in ripping off the Band-Aid. Miami’s youth movement could hit early, but I just found myself tired of trying to buck narratives with this Dolphins team. I agree with the team’s fan base that the front seven is getting massively faded by the national media, though I have for years been saying that Bradley Chubb is highly underrated in terms of his ability to impact a game. All that said, I had a choice to make between growth and attrition. We have Tyreek Hill being an outward distraction and the man responsible for getting him the ball trying to clean up the mess and set the emotional thermostat for the locker room. While it may seem blasphemous, I had to pick a side. Also, three of Miami’s final five games come in cold weather, while another two come against the Buccaneers and Bengals.

AFC NORTH

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Baltimore Ravens (12–5)

This is a season of erasing the “almost” game. This defined Baltimore’s year in 2024, with critical games against the Chiefs and Bills, among others, ending up as losses because of some wayward toe placement or flubbed catch . From what I understand, Lamar Jackson has taken another massive leap this offseason in terms of leadership—an overlooked platitude that could, in my mind, end up as the ingredient to close critical early-season games against Buffalo and Detroit. This schedule doesn’t appear as much of a gantlet when you take into account that Baltimore has one of the easiest slates in terms of travel. Still, back-to-back road games against the Packers and Steelers to finish the season will loom large. Both of those teams will be homing in on a playoff spot and will need wins to close the year.

Cincinnati Bengals (10–7)

This is now the most consistently heartbreaking team in the exercise. The defense is incredibly worrisome, and the Bengals are realistically one wide receiver injury away from competing with the Browns for last place in the division. However, I think I make up for that by having this team follow a familiar arc: losing four of its first five games before coming together for a frantic post-bye scramble. I am painfully in the bag for this team. I have picked Joe Burrow—much to the chagrin of our magazine editors—to be the MVP in each of the past three preseasons. The Bengals’ Super Bowl run left a mark on me , but not enough to proceed without extreme caution. Finishing the season with the Cardinals and Browns at home is a massive help.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9–8)

I’m going to couch this prediction by saying this: If Aaron Rodgers were able to commit to a version of an offense that Arthur Smith tried to run in Atlanta—a more physical, run-based approach that ties in the pass—I would switch the Steelers and Bengals, with more confidence that Pittsburgh could edge out Cincinnati's inconsistencies. But if Rodgers is going to play the aging rockstar offense—i.e., you’re going to sit here and watch me play what I want on guitar for three hours—I don’t think it’s worth much in the win department. Rodgers is still a prolific, future Hall of Fame passer, who will go down as one of the all-time greats. That doesn’t mean all the other things we believe about him—that he is somewhat difficult to adjust to as a wideout—are untrue. I have Rodgers, oddly, going 1–1 in his psychological Super Bowls this year, but not how you might think. I like the Jets throwing the kitchen sink at him in the opener, but Rodgers recovering to spite the Packers a few weeks later. Contrary to what people may think when viewing this back-loaded schedule, I have Pittsburgh closing strong to finish the season above .500.

Cleveland Browns (2–15)

When the Browns have been bad during the Paul DePodesta–Andrew Berry era, they have been strategically bad. While this projected outcome doesn’t mirror the season when the team gutted the roster and prepared for the most brazen attempt at tanking that we’ve seen over the past quarter century, it’s not great. The Browns have patched holes but have a choppy and aging offensive line situation, a veteran quarterback who struggles against all-out pressure and a good defense attempting to stave off a total freefall after a solid 2023 campaign and a much worse 2024. The wins on this schedule feel more or less random because they are. You can make an argument that the Browns are not as good as almost any of their opponents, but you can also see a situation where, perhaps, the Vikings are down an offensive linemen or two by Week 5 and Myles Garrett cooks against a rookie quarterback.

AFC SOUTH

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Houston Texans (10–7)

I faded the Texans a bit last year and overrated the Colts. This year, it appears, I have come to a similar conclusion. In fairness, Houston was stagnant offensively, which prompted a change at offensive coordinator. What scares me is that I feel like I only got to 10 wins despite being very fair to this year’s Texans. For instance, I have them beating the Rams in the opener and the Buccaneers in Week 2. I have them splitting a season series with the Jaguars, sweeping the Titans, splitting with the Colts and beating the Broncos. Still, I found that 10th win to feel a little hard to muster. I’m sure Texans fans will disagree, but the fact is that Houston will also lose one or two games that we would deem uncharacteristic (Jets and Titans last year, anyone?).

Indianapolis Colts (9–8)

In total transparency, I filed these predictions about a week before the Colts’ preseason opener. And boy was it disappointing to see that Daniel Jones still looks a lot like Daniel Jones. I thought his brief stay in Minnesota, in addition to Anthony Richardson clearing out an obvious opportunity for him to take the starting job and run with it, would ignite something in the former first-round pick. It’s totally O.K. if Jones was simply overdrafted and already maximized, but my experience in watching him in person was similar to that of Dave Gettleman’s. There’s just something about this guy in practice from time to time that leads you to believe all the lights are going to come on and he’s going to fillet a defense. Anyway, my Colts prediction now feels wildly optimistic, even if I think the defense improves vastly thanks to a coordinator change and the offense gets better by virtue of just logging steady quarterback play.

Jacksonville Jaguars (7–10)

Now we get to the bane of my existence. I have no idea what the Jaguars are going to be. This team started over with a first-time head coach and first-time coordinators at every spot, save for special teams. Instead of addressing a position of obvious need in the draft, the team swung for the fences with a positionless wide receiver-slash-cornerback and risked massive draft capital for the right to do it. I liken them from a prediction standpoint to last year’s Jets. It was either “Of course they’re good—they have Aaron Rodgers and Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams and Garrett Wilson and so on and so on” or “Of course they’re a disaster—they have Aaron Rodgers!”

This team is either going to be fun and absolutely a joy to watch, or the same kind of humdrum product that dazzles before disappointing as it was during the end of the Doug Pederson era.

Tennessee Titans (4–13)

I had the Commanders at five wins a year ago, and I imagine I could look similarly ridiculous if Cam Ward takes off for the Titans. Las Vegas has Tennessee sitting at 6.5 wins, which, to me, is a tremendous display of confidence not only in the No. 1 pick but in second-year head coach Brian Callahan. The team opens the season with a cross-country road trip at Denver in the heat and elevation, before getting the Rams, Colts and a road game against the Texans. While you could argue that the Colts game is winnable, it’s definitely a coin flip at best. I tried to show improvement by Ward in giving Tennessee two wins over the final three weeks of the season against New Orleans and a stunner against, yes, the mighty Chiefs.

AFC WEST

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Kansas City Chiefs (11–6)

Having Rashee Rice for any extended period of time is a boon for Kansas City, but I am largely done examining this team with any degree of seriousness. I mean, the basement for a Patrick Mahomes–led team is 10 wins and the ceiling, at least the way the division looks to me in 2025, is 12 wins. So, I decided to split the difference and have Kansas City eke out the division by a game. I have the Chiefs losing a highly ridiculous game to the Giants to start the season 1–2, mostly so we can round out those Patriots comparisons and talk about why the latter-year Tom Brady teams tended to start slow.

Denver Broncos (10–7)

This team smacks of a preseason hype victim. Vegas is correctly sitting at 9.5 wins for Denver, which builds in some of the uncertainties we don’t want to see right now. In my head, this defense will finish in the top three in EPA and Bo Nix will progress instead of regress. I have Denver absolutely smoking at 7–4 heading into a late-season bye. I have the Broncos completing a season sweep over the Chargers, which I find admittedly unlikely, but a sleeper loss to the Raiders on short(ish) rest after a road game on the East Coast on Sunday Night Football against the Commanders. I think this might need a little bigger dose of sobriety but such is the state of play when a Sean Payton team gets hot.

Los Angeles Chargers (10–7)

I have the Chargers finishing in third place but still making the playoffs. I toyed with a version of this prediction matrix that had L.A. winning the division, which doesn’t sound so far-fetched when you remember that Jim Harbaugh took a really bad team to the playoffs in 2024. The roster continues to churn and get better. This offense is going to be more stable, even without the help of Rashawn Slater, who is a devastating loss but is backed by Joe Alt moving to left tackle and the experienced Trey Pipkins III slotting over on the right side. Outside of getting swept by the Broncos which, again, I don’t see happening the more I think about it, I feel like this is a pretty agreeable breakdown with L.A. winning the games it is supposed to win and falling only to the teams that have an overwhelming advantage defensively (and, yes, once against the Raiders, just because).

Las Vegas Raiders (8–9)

The Raiders are going to be frisky in 2025, winning some games they should not (hello, Chip Kelly Bowl in Philadelphia in Week 15) and losing some games they should not (hello, loss to the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 5). It’s always impossible to predict the boost a team gets from a new coach and GM. Still, it’s important to remember that last year this relatively poor roster came super close to beating the Rams and Chiefs twice, in addition to logging an early-season win over the Ravens. If the Raiders can develop a running game with Ashton Jeanty, that can make the team, at the very least, powerful enough to control the clock and prevent an offense from doing something incredibly deleterious that hands a victory away.

NFC EAST

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Philadelphia Eagles (10–7)

What is an Eagles season without a bit of drama, causing the fan base to consider turning on a coach who has reached two Super Bowls in a matter of three seasons, winning one? That’s the impetus behind an early-season slide that has the defending champions starting the season with a win over Dallas before a three-game skid featuring losses to the Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams. Having the Giants twice in three weeks before the bye will help them rebound for an eventual sprint effort to capture the division.

Washington Commanders (10–7)

I built in a red-hot start for the Commanders before a bit of a slide once they reach six wins. The combo of road games at Dallas and Kansas City, plus a home game against an always-surprising and innovative Seattle defense, will prove to be Washington’s first real test of the season. The Commanders also bear the brunt of the poor start I slated for the Eagles, meaning that Philadelphia has to go all out—and beat Washington twice in the final weeks of the season—to save face and reach the postseason.

Dallas Cowboys (9–8)

When creating a fantastical world of your own imagination, there’s no reason not to build in a three-game losing streak amid a potential holdout by Micah Parsons . Truly, this is the stuff that dreams are made of—an owner getting skewered and a star player not backing down, despite the pressure on him to sign a deal. From there, it’s going to be your fairly typical Cowboys season—winning some big games in prime time, losing some really, really confounding games late in the season and coming up short in the critical moments against truly premium players and coaches.

New York Giants (6–11)

I have a running bet with friends that the Giants will exceed the Vegas-suggested 5.5 win total in 2025, though I did not realize how stressful finding those wins would be. For example, when I tried to look for solid pockets of wins, I ended up having the Giants defeat the Chiefs, figuring Rashee Rice may not be with the team and Abdul Carter could make work of a rookie left tackle still early in the season. However, one of these wins is against the Chiefs. This is partially a best-case scenario overview of a tough schedule, and partially a show of faith that the Giants will end the season with one major positive: a post-bye victory over the Commanders after the official switch is made from Russell Wilson to Jaxon Dart.

NFC NORTH

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Detroit Lions (10–7)

In my initial run at these projections, I had a three-way tie in the NFC North, with the Packers, Lions and Vikings all finishing 9–8. That’s kind of where I am on this division, which is supposedly a gantlet but may be in line for a bit of regression. The Lions passed the baton to an offensive coordinator, John Morton, who last called plays for the Todd Bowles–era Jets. I wanted to begin the season with a bit of drama, having the Lions lose the opener at Green Bay and then get leg-swept by the Ben Johnson–led Bears, which will create some horrible Freezing Cold Takes. Eventually a five-game winning streak toward the end of the season will push the Lions into the playoffs, a bit shaken, à la the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles.

Green Bay Packers (9–8)

This Packers team has a streaky potential to me. I think there could be weeks when this offense is white hot and weeks where it looks out of rhythm—a bit like the 2023 team that had longer NBA-like runs of brilliance and confusion. I did want to reflect it all coming together offensively toward the end of the season with two consecutive wins over very good defenses in Baltimore and Minnesota—an acknowledgement that when this offense is fully understood and coherent, it’s going to be really good.

Minnesota Vikings (10–7)

Arguably the most difficult projection, the Vikings are coming off a 14-win season and are replacing a veteran in Sam Darnold with J.J. McCarthy, who is essentially a rookie. McCarthy could—and should, ultimately—be better than Darnold. But is he now? The Vikings were also buoyed last season by a generationally good defense. Those are also hard to sustain, even though DC Brian Flores is in a renaissance period in terms of creativity. So, when in doubt, try to hit it down the fairway. I have Minnesota losing some games for very specific reasons, like in Chicago because of the new regime energy at Soldier Field in the opener, or Pittsburgh, with T.J. Watt cooking against a young passer. These added up and, while I’m sure Vikings fans aren’t going to be pleased, the season has to be uneven to reflect the unevenness of the young starting QB.

Chicago Bears (7–10)

The Bears, like the Broncos, have major hype potential, which is a massive pitfall for someone in my position. Everything about the team looks and seems great, but how much can we depend on an offensive line built through free agency and a young quarterback who is both brilliant and confounding? Much will be made of the losing streak I have the team going on from Weeks 8 to 14, but just look at the opponent set: at the Ravens, at the Bengals, the Giants (who, yes, will be bad, but have three good pass rushers who could take advantage of a banged up offensive line at this point), at the Vikings, the Steelers, at the Eagles and at the Packers. You’ll need to have a genius for a head coach to survive this particular run. Ben Johnson was hired to do that with Caleb Williams.

NFC SOUTH

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12–5)

This may be surprising that I have the Buccaneers ending up with the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but not when you look at the schedule as a whole. There are some really long stretches of time without something we would consider a quality opponent—especially down the stretch. But I also have Tampa Bay logging some big wins against legitimate contenders, just like it did a season ago—Philadelphia, Detroit and Buffalo all go down at the hands of this sneaky deep roster.

Atlanta Falcons (9–8)

I feel like Falcons fans will be unhappy but, like the Vikings, the quarterback is all a matter of projection right now. The rest of the offense that we have celebrated as a collection of stars is nothing more than an idea in our heads. Until we can see it, and see it consistently, it’s hard to slot this team as a division winner. The Commanders before the bye, and a combo of the Bills and 49ers after it, is a real pitfall for this team to navigate early on and has some ramifications for later on in the season. I snuck in a surprising loss to the Panthers as a kind of classic “overlook our opponent” scenario.

Carolina Panthers (6–11)

These predictions are being published just before Week 2 of the NFL preseason, and boy did I like what I saw from Bryce Young against the Browns. He’s firing now and gets rid of the ball with such confidence. I like Tetairoa McMillan as a contested deep-ball threat, but I think it’s going to take time to get him proficient in traffic. So, I have a mix of good and realistic bad. That includes a three-game winning streak in Weeks 3 to 5, giving Carolina a winning record for the first time since 2021 (under Matt Rhule!), and a post-bye loss to the Saints, a team that I have slated for the No. 2 pick next year.

New Orleans Saints (3–14)

This could end up as dicey as the time this exercise brought the column a national appeal when the GM of the Buccaneers confronted me about it . Three wins is a difficult mark to place on any team, especially one with a developing offensive line and a Rolodex of veteran talent. I am falling into a similar trap with the Saints—assuming they will sell off some assets and prepare for a regenerative draft in 2026, as I did with the Buccaneers a few years back. We all saw where that got me. The three wins are the product of being unseen and unknown in Week 1, and being able to outpace opponents—the Patriots and Panthers—in later weeks with defenses that I feel could be susceptible to Kellen Moore’s quick-huddle approach.

NFC WEST

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San Francisco 49ers (11–6)

With the Rams in a bit of an unknown space, I look to Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy and a—possibly—healthy Christian McCaffrey for a bit of stability. With this schedule, I didn’t get overly cute, save for losses to Chicago at home and at Indianapolis toward the end of the season. The 49ers of 2023, if you’ll remember, had a three-game losing streak against middle-tier opponents that was similarly eye-popping at the time but was merely a sign of exhaustion.

Los Angeles Rams (10–7)

As I write this, Matthew Stafford is lying in a silver airstream bus atop a chair that is emitting some rays into his body to make his back feel better. So, yeah, I don’t feel awesome about this. Let’s hope the Stafford injury is the red herring of the offseason, though if it is not, we have the potential of a total exercise-imploding injury that can reshape the NFC West. I have early losses to Houston—DeMeco Ryans could bring the heat on Stafford, knowing his mobility is challenged—and Jacksonville. Who else with a bad back doesn’t love a cross-the-globe flight to London and a 6:30 a.m. start time in your home market?

Seattle Seahawks (9–8)

A late adjustment had the Seahawks drop from 10 wins to nine, though this reflects my overall confidence in an offense that will transform under one-day head coach Klint Kubiak and the impressive Mike Macdonald. The four-game losing streak in Weeks 11 to 14 reflects the typical rigors of a long season, be it a roster-altering short-term injury or a period of sleepiness that Macdonald needs to rouse the team out of like that stretch where Seattle lost to the Giants and McCaffrey-less 49ers in back-to-back weeks a year ago.

Arizona Cardinals (6–11)

As I mentioned at the top, I’m ready to get waxed for this one. Everything is pointing up for the Cardinals. This roster is being built the correct way, and all the key tentpole positions are in place. This is the year of the takeoff—unless it simply isn’t. This happens from time to time and is a reminder that there is not always a logical ascent pattern, especially when the rest of the division is a collection of absolute stalwart head coaches (not to say Jonathan Gannon is not!). That’s why many of Arizona’s wins here are quality wins; they are just a little few and far between.

Projected playoff seeds

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