‘Dropped off a cliff’: Inside Swans’ shock decline... and why this AFL juggernaut can claw its way back

The 2024 season feels like a lifetime ago now for the Sydney Swans.

Sydney in 2025 simply hasn’t been the same product as it was in last year’s epic ladder-leading run that took it all the way to the last Saturday in September.

And really, the only thing that went wrong for the Swans last year was grand final day.

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Compare that to 2025, where there’s been one problem after another in a bumpy season to date for Dean Cox’s 2-5 side, which sits 14th on the ladder amid a grim injury run.

It’s like you’re watching the third or fourth season of a TV show that has a different feel and different characters. It’s just not quite the same.

After taking the reins from John Longmire, first-year coach Cox has been instantly thrown into the baptism of fire in a reminder of how tough the gig is.

So where have things gone wrong for the Swans? And how quickly can Cox and company drag themselves out of this rut?

“The thing that stands out the most is they’ve dropped off a cliff in scoring. They’ve gone from being one of the best, if not the best, to one of the bottom teams,” three-time premiership Lion Alastair Lynch told foxfooty.com.au.

“That includes their connection with hitting targets inside 50 and scoring from them. Even their accuracy at goal, which has cost them in recent weeks, has been a major concern.

“Against Port Adelaide they dominated parts of the game including clearances and contested possessions, but they couldn’t convert that to scores. Then against Gold Coast some of their kicking was just atrocious, which opened them up defensively.

“No doubt they’d have a game plan they’re tweaking, especially when you lose a grand final the way they did, they’re probably changing a few defensive systems. That always take a bit of time.”

Coach Dean Cox with Isaac Heeney during the Sydney Swans training session at the SCG on April 23, 2025. Photo by Phil Hillyard (Image Supplied for Editorial Use only - NO ON SALES - copyright Phil Hillyard ) Source: News Corp Australia

Tricky coaching handover, injuries

Anyone who tries to tell tells you Chris Scott was gifted a premiership in 2011 by inheriting a good list is naive.

For any coaching handover creates a level of uncertainty, and it takes more than just a good list to win a flag … much more.

Both Longmire’s departure in general and a fast-forwarded handover to Cox was always going to present a challenge of sorts.

Even if Cox was as well prepared and well equipped as possible for the top job, the Swans were entering a period of unknown after they’d had so much stability under Longmire for over a decade.

Port Adelaide will face that same issue at the end of the season when it transitions from Ken Hinkley to Josh Carr.

There’s many variables that come with a handover, like how the group will respond to a new voice and changes to the game plan, player positions and the football program at large.

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In this case, there’s clearly been growing pains under a new regime.

Throw in Sydney missing arguably eight of its best 23 players — Taylor Adams, Joel Amartey, Harry Cunningham, Robbie Fox, Errol Gulden, Logan McDonald, Callum Mills and Tom Papley – amid the worst injury toll in the competition and there’s been ample disruption to this once polished unit.

There’s obviously still some questions within those casualties. How many of those players are automatic walk ups to the senior side? What version of Mills do they get and how do they best utilise the skipper? Plus is an Amartey-McDonald led forward line premiership material?

No matter, the injuries have been a serious roadblock in the season regardless and meant we just haven’t had a proper look at what this side is supposed to be with all of Cox’s weaponry.

Perhaps not all of Cox’s changes have been by design as he tries to cover those absences, but there would be an element of him wanting to put his own stamp on things and evolve the side to be a better version of itself and to freshen it up.

That’s included the much-criticised move of Tom McCartin forward – an experiment that was ended last weekend – while Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner have been forced to play more forward at times.

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“They’re missing two of their most dangerous assets in Papley and Gulden. They’re two huge holes,” Lynch said.

“Gulden is their hardest runner and probably their best connector for forward 50 kicks. And Papley can turn poor kicks inside 50 into scores.

“Cox has personnel issues and no doubt he’s trying to evolve the game plan to go one better in grand finals. We know that takes time, even when you’ve got an experienced list.

“So I think it’s a bit of both – personnel (problems) and not being settled or able to execute their game style as they’d like. On the back of that some players lose a bit of confidence.”

Not to give the Swans an out, but they’ve played arguably the four flag frontrunners in Hawthorn, Brisbane, Collingwood and Gold Coast over their first seven games. While they’d clearly have wanted to fare better in those matchups, the quality of opposition always needs to be considered.

Did superstar trio’s dominance mask over other issues?

Going back to the injuries, the loss of Gulden has clearly been a significant one as arguably Sydney’s most important player.

Let’s not forget this is a top 10 player in the competition sidelined.

It also shines a bigger light on the importance – and perhaps over importance – of Gulden, Warner and Heeney’s dominance last year.

It may sound simple enough that you need your best players playing well. But the superstar trio were so good last year that it may have masked over other issues.

We saw some of those issues come to the fore in key areas later in the 2024 season when the trio dipped from their incredible earlier heights.

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After all, Gulden, Warner and Heeney all averaged over 23 disposals last year and booted a combined 84 goals.

Not having that same production has simply meant the Swans haven’t had the game played on their terms as consistently as they did last year — when there were three bankable commodities every week in the thick of it.

Those question marks at either end of the ground have always been there, but they’ve suddenly become more stark, with the team conceding 12-straight goals against Gold Coast in a return that was frankly un-Sydney like.

“Going into last year’s grand final against Brisbane, you’d think Sydney had the three top-rated players (in Heeney, Warner and Gulden). But then probably the next bunch were Brisbane players,” Lynch said.

“If you can blanket those guys, which is easier said than done, there’s a gap to the second-tier players.

“But they still have some great names. James Jordon is doing a good job and James Rowbottom is a very, very good player.

“It’s just the consistency this year hasn’t been there.”

So is this just a mini dip?

This season is clearly far from over for Sydney ahead of a defining month in clashes against GWS (SCG), Essendon (Marvel Stadium), Carlton (SCG) and Melbourne (MCG).

Sure, it’s set to be another ultra-competitive season, but the Swans are only two wins outside the top eight and have the fourth-best percentage of those teams currently missing.

There’s time to turn it around and it’d be brave to write them off this early.

But even if this did turn out to be a write-off season of sorts, there’s so much talent on the list that you’d have to be bullish about Cox’s troops reloading and being a force again.

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We effectively saw that happen during a five-win 2020 season when the club was in the mist of a rebuild on the run, before bouncing to 15 wins in 2021.

The current list is ranked equal-fifth in average age across the competition and ranked fourth in average games played, so it’s right in the sweet spot to contend, even if there’s some holes.

Retaining Chad Warner’s signature, if only for the next two years, is a big win. Plus the Swans also have an exciting crop of Academy talent in the 2025 draft including potential top-five prospect Max King and potential first-round picks Noah Chamberlain and Lachlan Carmichael.

Lynch believes Sydney’s injury toll exposing young players to greater senior opportunities — including promising signs from the likes of Riley Bice, Caiden Cleary and Corey Warner — also holds the club in good stead long term.

“They can get back to last year’s heights,” the Lions great said.

“Last time they missed finals on the back of a bunch of injuries, it exposed a lot of young players to AFL footy. Then they really bounced back hard.

“So they’d be exposing young players to league footy they normally wouldn’t. I think they can bounce back.”

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