Race for Europe: What each club need on the final day

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The 2024/25 Premier League season - and its exciting battle for European football - will conclude this weekend. Opta Analyst's David Segar looks at which teams can still qualify and what needs to happen on Sunday for them to achieve it.

As we approach the 38th and final matchday of the 2024/25 Premier League season, there are still some matters to be settled.

While Liverpool wrapped the title up with four matches to spare, and Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town have had weeks to get over their relegation back to the Championship, the fiercely contested race for places in Europe rages on.

The scrap for the UEFA Champions League has arguably never been more open. Liverpool and Arsenal are already cemented in the top two places, but with only one game left for every team, a quarter of the league’s 20 clubs are still fighting over the remaining three spots.

There is also a far smaller - but no less significant - tussle for a potentially profitable eighth place.

Ahead of Sunday’s action, we run through the permutations for each team involved, outlining what they need to do to reach their goal.

Manchester City

Current position: 3rd

It hasn’t been the season anyone expected for Man City. Going into it as heavy favourites to win a fifth consecutive Premier League title, they will end it outside the top two places for the first time since the 2016/17 campaign.

However, Pep Guardiola’s men can still go out on a high, and of the five teams still chasing Champions League qualification, they are the best placed. Tuesday night's 3-1 home victory against AFC Bournemouth took them up to third, with a two-point cushion and significant goal-difference advantage over sixth-placed Aston Villa.

City now realistically only need a point from their trip to Fulham to secure a top-five spot, while victory would confirm third place.

The only way a draw would not be enough is if Villa win their match at Manchester United by at least 17 goals; Ruben Amorim’s men have been poor this season, but not that poor.

The lowest City can finish is sixth, which means they will definitely be playing at least UEFA Europa League football next season.

Newcastle United

Current position: 4th

Whatever happens, it has already been a fantastic season for Newcastle, who won their first major trophy in 56 years with their EFL Cup success in March.

That victory meant they already had European football confirmed in the form of a UEFA Conference League place, but it’s unlikely they will need that particular ticket.

The cherry on top of the campaign would undoubtedly be securing Champions League football. Eddie Howe’s men welcome Everton to St James’ Park knowing a win will confirm their top-five spot, assuming there is no unprecedented goal-difference boost for Villa.

A draw for the Magpies would leave them sweating, though, as they would then need Villa not to win at Man Utd or Chelsea to draw with Nottingham Forest. A win for either side in the latter match would move the victors above Newcastle in that scenario.

Should they lose to Everton, Newcastle would need Villa to lose at Old Trafford, as they would definitely drop behind either Chelsea or Forest regardless of the score in that match.

Chelsea

Current position: 5th

For much of the season, some considered Chelsea to be a part of a three-way title race. That disappeared after the turn of the year, but Champions League qualification would still be a sign of progress for a team who have finished 12th and sixth in the last two seasons.

The Blues have a difficult task on Sunday, though, as they travel to one of their top-five rivals, Forest, where you fancy the atmosphere will be electric and the opposition determined.

Should Chelsea secure a victory at the City Ground, a top-five place will be sealed, again barring Villa inexplicably smashing the Premier League’s record for the biggest victory ever.

A draw would see Chelsea relying on results elsewhere to get them over the line. They’d either need Villa to not win, or Newcastle to lose.

Defeat for Chelsea would almost certainly deny them Champions League qualification, with only Newcastle losing by three more goals than them being enough to earn the Blues a reprieve.

Should they finish seventh, Chelsea will go back into the Conference League unless they win this year’s final against Real Betis and gain a Europa League spot, in which case the Conference League place drops down to the team in eighth.

Aston Villa

Current position: 6th

After their first taste of Champions League football this season, Villa want more, and they still have a decent chance of getting it.

Unai Emery’s men travel to Man Utd, which in almost any other season would seem like a very tricky place to go if you need the points on the final day.

However, the Red Devils sit in 16th place having picked up just two points from their last eight league matches, and their focus for much of the week will have been consumed by the Europa League final, in which they were beaten by Tottenham Hotspur. So, the visitors probably fancy their chances.

Villa are level on points with Newcastle and Chelsea but have a significantly inferior goal difference, sitting just outside the top five; as such, they definitely need something from Old Trafford.

A win will be enough for Villa if either Newcastle or Chelsea drop points, or if Man City lose.

In the event of a draw, Villa would need Newcastle to lose to Everton, as there would be no result possible from the Forest v Chelsea match that would enable Emery’s side to finish above both.

Nottingham Forest

Current position: 7th

It has been a sensational effort from Forest to even get this far, with many tipping them for another relegation battle at the start of the campaign. However, it would also surely feel like a kick in the backside to not qualify for the Champions League after spending so long in the top five this season.

Forest at least get to play things out on home soil, though they will want to improve their recent form, having not won any of their last three at the City Ground (D1 L2).

Coming up against top-five rivals makes the permutations fairly simple for Forest, as they really just have to win – though even that might not be enough for Champions League football.

A draw would only be sufficient in the rather unlikely event that not only do Villa lose, but Newcastle also lose to Everton by at least 10 goals. That said, a draw would at least guarantee Europa League qualification should Villa lose.

If Nuno Espirito Santo’s men emerge victorious, they would also need at least one of Newcastle or Villa to fail to win, or Man City to get mercilessly thrashed at Fulham in order to see a 13-goal swing.

Then there’s the slightly less tense but also possibly vital race for eighth…

Race for eighth place Position Pos Club Played Pl GD Points Pts 8 Brighton BHA 37 +4 58 9 Brentford BRE 37 +9 55 View the full table

Brighton & Hove Albion

Current position: 8th

Brighton are not in the race for Champions League football, but they can still make it into Europe.

Eighth place will claim a Conference League spot if Chelsea win this year’s final against Real Betis but also miss out on a top-five place.

For the two teams who can still finish eighth, all they can do is be there when the music stops and hope for the best.

Brighton have put themselves in a strong position to do so after their comeback victory against Liverpool on Monday, recovering from 1-0 and 2-1 down to win 3-2 at Amex Stadium.

The champions may not have been at their best, but Fabian Hurzeler’s men still did well to win; now with a three-point lead over Brentford, they just need a point at Spurs to confirm eighth.

A defeat would leave them needing Wolverhampton Wanderers to take something from their game with the Bees.

Brentford

Current position: 9th

Should the necessary occur and eighth place becomes a European spot, Brentford may be kicking themselves if they don’t make it.

Thomas Frank’s side have had a solid season but did the opposite of Brighton on Matchday 37, throwing away a 2-1 lead to lose 3-2 at home to Fulham.

That means the Bees have it all to do to get back there on the final day, requiring a victory at Wolves while also hoping Spurs can beat Brighton.

Brentford do at least have the benefit of having a better goal difference than the Seagulls.

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