'Wounded' Wallabies to 'slay' tourists

It’s do or die in Brisbane as the iconic MCG cricket ground plays host to the series-deciding fixture between the Wallabies and British and Irish Lions.

The match is set to attract in excess of 80,000 fans as Australia look to upset the odds and level the series against the famous touring team, and have been dealt a major boost with three powerhouse forwards making timely returns from injury.

Dave Porecki, Will Skelton and Rob Valetini all slot right back into Joe Schmidt’s starting XV, which looks far, far stronger this week than it did last.

And Australia desperately needed it as the 27-19 final scoreline flattered the hosts, who on the whole were overpowered and outplayed rather comprehensively by the famous touring team.

Andy Farrell’s controversial selections were vindicated in the series opener, but the British and Irish Lions boss has been forced into changes this week as injuries rear their ugly head again, while he has also made further big calls on the likes of Jac Morgan, Owen Farrell and Blair Kinghorn.

The tourists head into the game off the back of a hard-fought victory over the First Nations and Pasifika XV, with the performance mattering little considering the lack of Test Lions in the squad and the vast number of ‘training cover’ players involved.

Still, that match exposed chinks in the Lions’ armour that the Wallabies can exploit.

Where the game will be won

The first Test match of the series was won and lost upfront, like most international matches nowadays, with Australia losing the gainline battle for about 60 minutes before finding some parity.

It’s clear to see in Schmidt’s selections that the focus is squarely on matching that effort from the final quarter last week throughout the 80 minutes this Saturday. Momentum will be the buzzword, whether it’s generating it or bringing it to a halt, a skill that Skelton has mastered. That was also the reasoning behind both Tom Curry and Tadhg Beirne’s selections in Test I and their retentions for Test II.

With Skelton and Valetini back in the Wallabies pack, Australia’s carrying threats are in a completely different tier, and the bench equally so, with the 6-2 split featuring bigger athletes in the form of Jeremy Williams and Langi Gleeson.

The set-piece influenced the first Test match and is bound to do the same again this week. Porecki is a massive asset for the Wallabies in that regard, as is the fact that referee Andrea Piardi presses for the game to resume rather than awarding penalties at scrum time. Nick Frost showed his value with his clutch lineout steal in the final knockings of the game and will be eager to replicate that effort.

Australia’s opening try of the series came through the aerial game, a facet that they were unable to really exploit after losing the gainline battle, but finding early parity there will go a long way in keeping the scores tight.

Highlights of Test I

What they said

Wallabies boss Schmidt has called for a more ruthless and aggressive effort from his charges this week, which is aided by the presence of the mighty Skelton in his pack.

“Will has accumulated that experience; he knows what it’s like to play these players, he’s played them regularly,” Schmidt said.

“And he’s won against them regularly, certainly in Europe, in the big European games that they’ve played. We don’t want to be nice, and we don’t want to be submissive.

“We didn’t have the intention last week, and we don’t have the intention this week of being submissive.”

The experienced coach added: “I just think that they played on the edge really well.

“They got in amongst us, sometimes just beside us, which made it very hard to play and we’re hopeful that we will be able to take that to them this week and keep them on the back foot a little bit more.”

Skelton’s selection was a hot topic in the pressers with Lions captain Maro Itoje also asked about the powerhouse Wallabies lock and his former clubmate.

“I played a few good years with Will, played against him a few times as well,” said Itoje.

“He is a fantastic player. He is a talisman for La Rochelle and any side he plays in, he adds a sense of dynamism, size, power to the team, so I am delighted for him that he is able to play. I know he was hoping he would get an opportunity. It’s something that we are excited about.

“Obviously, Will presents, due to the size of him and his strengths, different challenges to your traditional lock, but as always the focus will be on us. We don’t want to get too distracted by what they may or may not do.”

Meanwhile, head coach Farrell is not surprised that Schmidt has opted for a 6-2 split in favour of the forwards on his bench despite the Lions boss sticking to the traditional set-up.

“It is what it says on the tin,” he remarked.

“It’s obvious what they [Skelton and Valetini] are going to bring and why they are selected, so I suppose they are delighted with that, and the six/two bench just backs that up a little bit. It’s not unexpected.

“We always consider it [six/two], any type of split, and what is right for the team is all that matters. I suppose there are all sort of risks and rewards for any type of different combination, but I am not privy to the ins and outs of how their team is fitness-wise or feeling or what their tactics may be. I suppose we can guess with the combination there.”

How Lions skipper Maro Itoje views ‘non-traditional lock’ Will Skelton and second Test referee Andrea Piardi

Players to watch

Wallabies lock Nick Frost often flies under the radar, but last week he produced a real standout performance. Not only did he pull off a marvellous lineout steal at the death, but he was also the most effective ball carrier for the Wallabies in a pack that was largely stopped on the gainline. He also racked up one of the top three ruck entries for his side. If Australia are to claim a victory, he is bound to be a standout performer yet again.

Staying in the gold pack, Rob Valetini‘s return supercharges the pack. A workaholic around the park, the Brumbies back-rower is all-action, all of the time and has a brilliant, well-rounded game. Expect nothing less than him hitting the ground running.

Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii came agonisingly close to scoring in the first match of the series in what was an otherwise quiet game from the box-office talent. The former rugby league star is a real force in the air, and surely the Wallabies will make better use of that trait this weekend, particularly with harsher weather predicted for Saturday. He has a full box of tricks that we didn’t really get to see in Brisbane, but could be whipped out in Melbourne. Schmidt is renowned for his trick plays and ability to design plays to get the best out of athletes of his quality; he certainly has something up his sleeve.

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An intriguing call from Farrell is in his front-row with Andrew Porter and Ellis Genge switching roles, the former taking over the starting role. Genge has been brilliant on tour and put in a brutally effective shift in Brisbane, but coaches clearly see his explosiveness as a real asset off the bench, meaning that Porter comes into the run-on team. The Irishman has the tank to go the full 80 minutes, but he will be encouraged to empty it with Genge waiting on the bench to pick up from where Porter left off.

A decision that was taken out of the coaching team’s hands was at inside centre with Sione Tuipulotu struggling with a tight hamstring, opening the door for Bundee Aki to start in the midfield. Aki has had flashes of brilliance in the red jersey, but at times, has lacked the finishing product. He is a brute force with the ball in hand and on defence, making him a real threat, especially if the forecasted wet weather comes to fruition.

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Main head-to-head

There are mouth-watering head-to-heads across the two matchday squads, but one that really piques the interest is in the second-row with Will Skelton and Maro Itoje facing off.

As mentioned repeatedly, the gainline and momentum battle will be the deciding factor on Saturday with two masters of the craft going toe-to-toe. What makes the face-off even more intriguing is the manner in which the pair go about their business.

Skelton is all about brute force, physicality and abrasiveness, and while Itoje certainly has that in his locker, he also makes use of his agility, smarts and technical excellence. It’s not quite a brawn v brains match-up but rather a contrast of styles.

Two master disruptors. One that feasts on big moment contributions and domination, while the other throws himself into as many battles as possible, looking to influence as much as possible.

Prediction

Last week, the Planet Rugby team got the prediction spot on, correctly calling an eight-point victory for the British and Irish Lions. The tourists were favourites in that fixture, and the same is true this week. But a week is a long time in international rugby, and the Wallabies will not only be armed with more insight into what to expect from the Lions but also a real feel of what the men in red are capable of.

Australia hardly fired a shot in the first hour in Brisbane and simply cannot afford the same this time around. Farrell has lost key men in the build-up to the series-deciding game, and while the strength in depth is simply insane, there are chinks that can absolutely be exploited.

The Wallabies want a win. Rugby Australia needs a win. Pressure can make or break teams. A weakened team were overpowered last week, but a wounded animal is a dangerous animal, and that is what the Lions are up against this weekend. It’s a long shot, a bold prediction, but for the good of Rugby Australia and the interest of the series, we predict that the Wallabies will slay the Lions, claiming a marginal victory over the tourists of less than five points.

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Previous results

2025: Lions won 27-19 in Brisbane, Queensland

2013: Lions won 41-16 in Sydney, New South Wales

2013: Australia won 16-15 in Melbourne, Victoria

2013: Australia won 21-23 in Brisbane, Queensland

2001: Australia won 29-23 in Sydney, New South Wales

2001: Australia won 35-14 in Melbourne, Victoria

2001: Lions won 29-13 at The Gabba, Brisbane

The teams

Wallabies: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Harry Potter, 10 Tom Lynagh, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 David Porecki, 1 James Slipper

Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Carlo Tizzano, 22 Tate McDermott, 23 Ben Donaldson

British and Irish Lions: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter

Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jac Morgan, 21 Alex Mitchell, 22 Owen Farrell, 23 Blair Kinghorn

Date: Saturday, July 22

Venue: MCG Stadium, Melbourne

Kick-Off: 7:45pm AEST, 10:45am BST

Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR)

Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (GRU), Ben O’Keeffe (NZR)

TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)

FPRO: Marius Jonker (SARU)

READ MORE: Eddie Jones: What sets Owen Farrell apart, and why Andy Farrell prefers Tom Curry over Morgan and Van der Flier

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