Fantasy Football Week 8 Defense (DST) Rankings and Streamers

We had a massive DST scoring week in Week 7 of the NFL season, and, thankfully, the top two scoring defenses (Cleveland and New England) were both Tier One defenses for us last week. We also had Kansas City, Chicago, and the Los Angeles Rams hit double figures, and the Seahawks just missed the top 10 but put up a solid nine-point game, so we had a solid week in our rankings.

Sadly, I did originally have the Texans inside my top 10, but I moved them down because I believe in the Seahawks offense. Houston scored 18 points and finished as the third-best defense on the day. We also had surprise performances by the Panthers and Cowboys, who both finished inside the top 10. Yet, I learned from that Panthers game and modified my formula to add even more weight to opponent performance since the Panthers really only got into the top 5 thanks to how bad the Jets are.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 7: 6-4

SEASON-LONG: 35-35

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + TACKLE FOR A LOSS RATE+ (TURNOVER RATE x 2))

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))

I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points scored per game over the last six weeks because fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

DST WEEK 8 RANKINGS

RankTier One DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING1Indianapolis Coltsvs TEN162Atlanta Falconsvs MIA73Kansas City Chiefsvs WAS34New England Patriotsvs CLE12

It may surprise you to see a team I have ranked 16th in my BOD rankings come in as the top-ranked defense of the week, but that’s how bad the Titans are. They have given up 14 points per game to opposing defenses over the last four weeks. Maybe Calvin Ridley is back this week, but I’m not sure that matters much. The Colts rank 8th in turnover rate and 10th in pressure rate over the last six weeks, while also ranking 12th in rate of tackles for a loss or no gain. I just think they’re a good enough defense to take advantage of a matchup against an offense that has the 4th-highest turnover rate and the 2nd-worst sack rate in the league.

I was stashing the Falcons wherever I could this week in order to play them this week against the Dolphins, so they better deliver for us. Over the last six weeks, they rank 5th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play allowed, 6th in turnover rate, and 9th in the NFL in pressure rate while averaging a solid 8.2 fantasy points per game. They’re now going up against a Dolphins team that just looks like an entire organization about to walk the plank. They’ve given up nine points per game to opposing defenses over the last month and are likely to be without Darren Waller, who had actually emerged as their second-best receiver. The Falcons are huge favorites at home, so I’m firing them up wherever I can.

The Chiefs will also remain in Tier One for now because the Commanders seem likely to be without Jayden Daniels, who suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday. We also don’t yet know the status of Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, who both missed last week, so this could be a really undermanned Commanders offense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank 2nd in EPA per play allowed, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 7th in the NFL in pressure rate, 9th in conversion rate allowed, and 10th in turnover rate over the last six weeks. Their offense is clicking with Rashee Rice, and that could force Marcus Mariota to play from behind in comeback mode, which we like for the Chiefs defense.

The Patriots are in first place in the AFC East and playing really solid football of late. They’ve averaged 9.7 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and rank 9th in turnover rate and 10th in EPA per play allowed. They also allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per carry in the NFL and allow only 103.4 rushing yards per game, which is 11th in the league. Considering how run-heavy the Browns have become, I expect the Patriots to sell out to stop Quinshon Judkins and force Dillon Gabriel to beat them with his arm. I don’t think he can, which is why the Browns have allowed nine fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month.

RankTier Two DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING5Houston Texansvs SF16Minnesota Vikingsat LAC57Tampa Bay Bucsat NO118Chicago Bearsat BAL69Buffalo Billsat CAR14

The Texans may have lost on Monday Night Football, but their defense delivered yet again. Over the last six weeks, they rank 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 1st in conversion rate allowed,1st in EPA per play allowed, and 8th in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain. George Kittle returned this week, but it does not seem like Brock Purdy will be back for the 49ers this week. Additionally, Jauan Jennings is playing through myriad injuries, and we’ve yet to see Ricky Pearsall back on the practice field, so this is not a 49ers offense operating at 100%.

The Vikings didn’t have their best effort against the Eagles this weekend, but they still average 9 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks whiel ranking 3rd in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in conversion rate allowed, 5th in the NFL in pressure rate, and 8th in EPA per play allowed. Kimani Vidal predictably came back down to Earth when he wasn’t facing the Dolphins, and the Chargers suffered yet another offensive tackle injury on Sunday, which forced them to play their 6th-string tackle. That has led to them allowing 7.3 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so I think that makes the Vikings a solid bet this week.

The Bucs are in a mediocre matchup against a Saints offense that gives up just 6.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. However, the Bears may have exposed a major weakness on Sunday when they blitzed Spencer Rattler with their corners and safeties and pressured him all game. The Bucs rank 6th in the NFL in pressure rate and 8th in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, so they will be able to get in the backfield. Additionally, the Saints lost Kendre Miller, which may not seem like a big injury, but he was a far more effective runner this season than Alvin Kamara, and they also lost center Erik McCoy to a season-ending biceps injury, so the running game is not going to be effective on Sunday, and I expect the Bucs to take advantage of Rattler having to throw.

This Bears ranking may change a lot during the week, but Lamar Jackson didn’t practice on Monday in the team’s first practice session after the bye week, which is not great news for his availability this weekend. Without him, this Ravens offense is simply not scary. Over the last six weeks, the Bears rank 1st in turnover rate, 13th in EPA per play allowed, and 14th in opponent’s scoring rate while averaging 7.8 fantasy points per game. Maybe they can put up eight or nine points against a banged-up Ravens team. To be clear, they would move down significantly if Lamar Jackson plays.

The Bills’ defense is in a unique spot because two suspended players on their defensive line, Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi, are eligible to return this week. The team could certainly use them, but what is their role going to be? First-round pick Maxwell Hairston also had his practice window opened, but he’s unlikely to return this week, and we have to watch the practice reports to see if Matt Milano will be back. Bills rank 1st in the NFL in pressure rate, 4th in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, 12th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks (so removing the Ravens game). Bryce Young is going to be out, and Andy Dalton will be under center, but I’m not sure that’s a downgrade; however, it does seem like the Panthers’ insistence on splitting carries between Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle will make the running game less impactful than if Dowdle were allowed to keep the job.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

RankTier Three DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING10Cleveland Brownsat NE1011Los Angeles Chargersvs MIN1812Cincinnati Bengalsvs NYJ3213Pittsburgh Steelersvs GB914Philadelphia Eaglesvs NYG1715Denver Broncosvs DAL15

The Browns are a solid defense, ranking 2nd in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, 4th in EPA per play allowed, and 8th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks. However, that has led to 7.5 fantasy points per game, and they’re on the road against a Patriots team that has allowed just three fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. This feels a lot like a six-point performance coming in.

The Chargers rank 6th in rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain and 10th in conversion rate allowed, and 13th in turnover rate while averaging five fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. The magic fairy dust has started to fade from Carson Wentz, though, and the Vikings have allowed 9.6 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so there’s a chance that the Chargers could slide into the top 10 here.

Can you trust the Bengals’ defense? It’s going to be a huge question in fantasy football this week because we desperately want to play defenses against the Jets. Justin Fields was benched on Sunday for Tyrod Taylor, and then Aaron Glenn wouldn’t commit to Fields as the starter. The Jets have allowed 14 points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, but the Bengals’ defense has scored just 2.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. There are no redeeming values for this defense, but the Jets are really bad.

The Steelers, Eagles, and Broncos are all defenses we usually like, but they haven’t been as dominant as we’re used to, and they’re all in average or subpar matchups. The Steelers rank 2nd in turnover rate, but the Eagles don’t rank inside the top 10 in any metrics I like, while the Giants have given up just seven fantasy points per game to opposing defenses with Jaxson Dart under center. Lastly, I get that it’s really hard to trust the Broncos after allowing 32 points to those Giants on Sunday, but Denver does rank 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, 9th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in opponent’s scoring rate over the last month, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they got things back on track.

RankTier Four DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING16Green Bay Packersat PIT1917Carolina Panthersvs BUF2018New Orleans Saintsvs TB2119New York Giantsat PHI2320San Francisco 49ersat HOU2421Dallas Cowboysat DEN2622Washington Commandersat KC25

The Packers have simply not delivered for us as a fantasy defense. Yes, they get pressure on the quarterback, but they don’t get turnovers and they allow a decent amount of points, which is why they’ve averaged just 4 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. It’s hard to trust them this week.

The Bucs continue to limp along this season. Mike Evans returned on Monday only to suffer a broken collarbone, which means he will miss most of the regular season. Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin are reportedly getting closer, but we have no idea if either player will play in Week 8. Emeka Egbuka did return, and I don’t love the Saints’ defense, so I still can’t rank them higher than this.

I know we want to play the 49ers because the Texans can’t block, and their offense looks horrible. However, the 49ers rank 26th in pressure rate over the last six weeks, so I’m not sure they’re the team that can take advantage of the Texans’ poor offensive line. Also, the Texans have allowed just five fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. The 49ers rank 8th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks, and Nico Collins may miss this game with a concussion, so I could move San Francisco up a bit if he’s ruled out, but maybe just to the bottom of the next tier.

RankTier Five DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING23Miami Dolphinsat ATL2924New York Jetsat CIN3025Tennessee Titansat IND2826Baltimore Ravensvs CHI3127Seattle SeahawksBYE828Los Angeles RamsBYE429Jacksonville JaguarsBYE1330Detroit LionsBYE231Arizona CardinalsBYE2232Las Vegas RaidersBYE27

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

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