Monday Cal-culations: Carlton calls coming, Giants' smart tactic, can Jezza crack a ton?

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey looks at how the Giants are using the sub, footy's best 20 and under forwards and more

Michael Voss, Adam Kingsley and Jeremy Cameron. Pictures: AFL Photos

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at the big moves coming at the Blues, who the Swans should call to be their new CEO and more in Monday Cal-culations

CARLTON'S CALLS COMING

CARLTON has nine weeks to decide just how much change it needs to make ahead of 2026.

Despite their Saturday shocker against North Melbourne, the Blues are still within reach of the finals. But that is only in theory – Carlton clearly is not a challenger this year. That in itself is not where the club thought it could and would be after being on the edges of contention in recent seasons, namely their run to the preliminary final in 2023.

The future of coach Michael Voss is central to it all and the Blues, namely incoming chief executive Graham Wright, must decide if their end-of-year change includes him or surrounds him.

Contracted for next year, Voss has had a consistent group of coaches around him during his four-year tenure at Carlton.

Michael Voss walks from the huddle during Carlton's clash against North Melbourne in round 15, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Senior assistant Ash Hansen, backs coach Aaron Hamill and midfield assistant Tim Clarke joined him at the end of 2021 ahead of Voss' first season in 2022, while he brought Aaron Greaves to the club as coaching and performance manager that year as well. Jordan Russell is the newest face of Carlton's line coaching panel, having joined ahead of the 2023 season.

Carlton, incredibly, sat second on the ladder after round 16 last season. In 12 months since, it has won eight games, five of those against West Coast and North Melbourne and the other three against St Kilda, Essendon and Geelong, the Cats their only major scalp. The Roos' barnstorming second and third quarters to set up Saturday's win at the MCG looked a tipping point in an introspection Carlton needs on where it sits.

Voss said post-game it was not a time to "isolate" when asked about his position, but will know the focus comes first to him. His high contest, crash-bash game style has seen the Blues be an average second-half team in the AFL this season despite being, on average, the fourth oldest and sixth most experienced in the first 13 rounds of the year.

It is less a rejig than a reinvention that is required, as the top teams cut up others through transition and turnover and the Blues battle to find their class to do that.

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What to do with the list will be part of Carlton's calls. Is 6-8 reflective of the group's quality or an underachievement? Is Tom De Koning's potential exit to St Kilda, in exchange for what would be pick No.10 under the free agency compensation formula, a moment to reset the list and then go again?

Jagga Smith was Carlton's first top-10 pick last year since Sam Walsh in 2018. In getting a compensation pick if De Koning goes, and then matching a likely top-20 bid for father-son Harry Dean, plus getting Smith back next year, the Blues can enter 2026 with three high-quality young new additions.

But that won't and can't be seen as the quick fix. Getting the most from Charlie Curnow and Sam Walsh must be a focus, with the Blues' use of Walsh this season largely cutting back his midfield and centre bounce time on last year to compensate for Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and Adam Cerra, who can't as easily be shifted to other positions. Any trade approaches for Harry McKay should be considered. Rivals are smelling blood on Curnow and Walsh but they should be non-negotiables, particularly as Walsh heads into his free agency call next year and will take time to make his decision. So far, the window with six stars has amounted to one finals run.

A quality small forward has to be on the shopping list. And much change appears likely with a group of nearly 20 players remaining out of contract, including Mitch McGovern, Jesse Motlop, Sam Docherty and Nick Haynes.

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A GIANT SUB WIN

GREATER Western Sydney is bringing the tactics back to the tactical sub. And they should keep Jake Stringer as their vest with the best.

When the substitute was reintroduced to the game in 2021, clubs were quick to find the impact player who could fit the role well, be versatile and potentially be injected late in games to have a say on things.

But it has developed into a 'last man picked' position, largely used for a player on the fringes of selection or just hanging onto their spot. Often it is a way to soft drop a player; the week after the starting sub has the vest, they're not in the 23 at all.

In bringing Stringer back into the Giants' line-up in a crunch game against Gold Coast, Adam Kingsley might have found the perfect role for the former Bomber after his injury and illness-hit 2025.

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Before his hamstring injury, Stringer was the sub against Sydney in round eight and came onto the ground to kick three goals. The week later he was subbed out of the game after booting two early majors, but suffering the hamstring strain.

Stringer was huge against Gold Coast on Sunday, entering the game earlier than expected due to Lachie Whitfield's concussion and kicking two brilliant late goals in the final quarter to help overrun the Suns.

Stringer had 15.03 AFL ratings points from his 75 minutes on the ground, making his performance against the Suns the highest rated from any starting sub this year. Extrapolated to 100 minutes of footy, it was a 20 AFL ratings game - a high benchmark.

Through preservation, the sub's vest could make Stringer the second-half-of-the-year weapon the Giants hoped they were getting when they picked him up last October.

FORGET THE COMPARISONS, THESE ARE FOOTY'S FORWARDS OF THE FUTURE

IT IS easy to see why clubs in Victoria were throwing millions at Logan Morris earlier this year as the Brisbane key forward's contract talks dragged on. They probably should have added a few more dollars to their pitches.

After being an important player in the Lions' flag last season, Morris has backed it up, booting 30 goals so far this year. That includes back-to-back bags of five over the past two weeks.

Picked at No.31 in 2023, Morris is proving to be one of Lions recruiting manager Steve Conole's greatest hits in a long list of brilliant selections that were crucial to last year's flag.

The debate online has pitted Morris' development against the excitement around Essendon's Nate Caddy, as though only one promising young key forward can be exciting at any one time. Morris is 20, while Caddy, who was dynamic against Fremantle on Thursday night, turns 20 next month.

Logan Morris celebrates a goal during Brisbane's clash against Geelong in round 15, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Imagine them both in the same side? Well, we have. We've looked at the best forwards in the AFL who are aged 20 and younger. Aside from Morris and Caddy, another key forward contender would be Gold Coast's Jed Walter, who was the No.3 pick in 2023.

His Suns teammate Bailey Humphrey is still 20 and having a super season as a powerful forward/midfielder, while Fremantle's Murphy Reid (18 years old), Hawthorn's Nick Watson (20), Richmond's Seth Campbell (20) and Essendon's Isaac Kako (19) are small forwards who fit the criteria.

THE AFL'S BEST 20-AND-UNDER FORWARD LINE

HF: Bailey Humphrey (20), Nate Caddy (19), Murphy Reid (18)

FF: Seth Campbell (20), Logan Morris (20), Nick Watson (20)

Nate Caddy marks the ball during the match between Essendon and Sydney at Marvel Stadium in round nine, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

THE SNEAKY CENTURY WATCH

THIS is presented more in hope than expectation. But is a Jezza ton the sneakiest of sneaky chances?

Jeremy Cameron is up to 48 goals for this season as the Coleman Medal leader. That total after 15 games is three goals better than after 15 games in 2019, when Cameron kicked a career-high 76 goals.

Cameron has eight more home-and-away games left, but the Cats' run home includes two games against Richmond, as well as matches against Essendon, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Sydney and his former team Greater Western Sydney. There are some potentially big haul days in there.

Jeremy Cameron celebrates a goal for Geelong against Brisbane in R15, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Add in likely at least two finals for the Cats and the champion forward should have another 10 games to cash in to a hot goalkicking start to the season. Even if he goes at the same average of 3.2 a game for that period, Cameron would hit the 80-goal mark for the first time in his glittering career.

Charlie Curnow cracked that rare level in 2023, booting 81 goals from 26 games that season as Carlton made the Grand Final.

TIME FOR SOME 'GOV' LOVE

JEREMY McGovern's overflowing list of accolades tell a big part of his footy story, which ended last week when he was medically retired after meeting the AFL's independent concussion panel. But the numbers attached to the champion West Coast defender's 197-game career are equally as astonishing.

McGovern is a Champion Data dream.

The stats analysts at Champion show McGovern averaged three intercept marks a game for 10 straight seasons. No other player has done it for more than five straight seasons, with Giant Sam Taylor hitting that mark. McGovern's career average of 3.3 intercept marks a game is the most on record.

He has taken five or more intercept marks in 53 games, which is an all time record (no other player has done it more than 40 times) and since he debuted in 2014, McGovern marked 18 per cent of the one-on-one contests he defended, which ranked him at No.1.

Jeremy McGovern in action during West Coast's clash against Brisbane in round two, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

He is the only player to record 100 score involvements and 90 intercept marks in a season in 2017, and in the Eagles' finals series that year took 15 intercept marks, which is one short of the finals record despite only playing two games.

Amazingly, McGovern has each of the top five highest rated seasons on Champion Data's 100x rating system, and six of the top 10. Harris Andrews has three in there and Alex Rance the other.

Players with the highest 100X ratings combined across all seasons since 2014 include Patrick Dangerfield, Marcus Bontempelli, Nic Naitanui, Lance Franklin, Dustin Martin, Nat Fyfe, Gary Ablett Junior and McGovern. It is rare company, but the type of company McGovern belongs well amongst.

WHY THE SWANS SHOULD CONSIDER A RIVAL

HERE'S a thought. In their search to replace outgoing CEO Tom Harley, the Swans should look across town.

Dave Matthews has been the boss of the Giants since 2011 – making him the longest-serving CEO at any club. His start there came after running game development at the AFL.

The AFL's gain in Harley is Sydney's loss and leaves the club with a new CEO to go with a new coach, football boss, list manager and recruiting manager in the past two years. Harley is remaining at the Swans until at least the end of the men's season as the Swans start their transition process.

Greater Western Sydney CEO Dave Matthews speaks to the media on August 23, 2022. Picture: Getty Images

New South Wales remains the AFL code's greatest frontier and nobody knows that as acutely as Matthews and the Giants, who continue to try different ways to find an edge in the rugby league dominated region. Matthews was on the front foot on the weekend as well, responding to the Saints' call to abolish the northern Academies, as revealed by AFL.com.au last week, as "laughable".

The Swans and Giants have had a tense relationship since GWS entered the competition as the brash little brother, but the barbs, tweets, dramatic finals and derbies should be put aside as Sydney picks up its process to replace Harley. Matthews is worth a call.

JACKSON'S RECORD BREAKER

LUKE Jackson is in some kind of form.

His AFL Player Rating of 36 was not a typo – it was the highest rated game ever recorded by a Dockers player.

Jackson had 21 disposals, 48 hitouts, 10 clearances and kicked three goals in a dominant display against Essendon, who blooded ruck debutant Vigo Visentini for the game.

Luke Jackson (right) celebrates a goal with Andrew Brayshaw during Fremantle's win over Essendon in round 15, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Visentini showed he is competitive, tough and has football smarts and his development should give Essendon pause for thought on whether re-signing Sam Draper, or instead taking an early compensation pick for him, is the right move.

Regardless, Jackson saw a chance to fill his boots and produced the equal highest rated game ever recorded by a ruckman under the Champion Data rankings, while his current 100x rating has him headed for the fourth best on record by a ruckman (Nic Naitanui holds each of the top three).

SIMMO'S SPEECH TO THE ROOS

IN SELLING two home games to Western Australia, North Melbourne also used its recent week in the west to strengthen its ties with its former greats in the state.

As part of the week-long stay in WA, which included a home game win at Bunbury against West Coast before hosting Fremantle at Optus Stadium in a deal worth more than $2 million to the club, the Roos were strong on making it feel like a home away from home.

That included Roos premiership players Adam Simpson and Dani Laidley chatting with the full North Melbourne group for 45 minutes on the Tuesday night between games.

Adam Simpson presents Finnbar Maley his jumper ahead of North Melbourne's game against Essendon in R8, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Simpson last coached against the Roos almost 12 months ago to the day, in his fourth last game as West Coast's coach, but took the chance to address the club he formerly captained alongside his 1996 flag teammate Laidley.

The short meeting was meant to go for 20 minutes, but stretched out as the pair talked through their love of the Kangas.

North also had ex-Roos Peter Bell and Matthew 'Spider' Burton join in a sponsors' function during the week, fan favourite Winston Abraham was welcomed in and Drew Petrie came along to a training session to join in as well.

The Roos were based at East Fremantle's new $25 million facility and invited Sharks coaching staff to sit in on their AFL opposition coaching planning day for their own development and insights.

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