Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Truist Championship preview and best bets

Ben Coley previews the Truist Championship, where Patrick Cantlay has to be worth sticking with under what should be ideal conditions.

Golf betting tips: Truist Championship 3pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 2pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 1pt e.w. Jason Day at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley at 55/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 1pt e.w. Denny McCarthy at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There are of course competing factions and different governing bodies; there are stakeholders and, most of all, there are logistical issues. But doesn't it feel oh so very golf in 2025 that this week, the PGA Tour visits a wonderful golf course, then next week, the PGA Championship goes to an inferior one that the PGA Tour visits every other year. And if you think this is just me being snide for the sake of it, how's this for a line. "We play a lot of golf courses that are 'bomb it and go find it.' You can’t necessarily do that at Philly Cricket." Who said that? Not a player, not a pundit or television announcer, but the PGA Tour's very own vice president of championship management. That's right, one of the people who helps determine where the PGA Tour goes effectively admitting that their typical course isn't as good as this one; that their typical course so often makes this game one-dimensional. Now, most of this is not really down to the operator: 'bomb it and go find it' isn't limited to the PGA Tour and is instead, arguably, the result of years of neglect which allowed equipment manufacturers to push the game beyond the limits of its own playgrounds. Still, this is an awkwardly vivid state-of-the-game latest. It turns out there are still golf courses which can provide variety, it's just one of this year's majors is held at a course which doesn't.

Ep.18, May 5 - Scottie by a million, who's the most popular golfer, slow play and the return of DPWT

It could've been worse, of course, and we do have ourselves a lovely treat on the eve of the PGA Championship. A high-class field, absent of Scottie Scheffler, who likes to keep this week free, heads to a golf-starved part of the US to play a restored AW Tillinghast classic which may prove to be the best we see on television all year long. One which, hand on heart, doesn't appear to have the space needed to host a modern major. What those players can expect is a tricky course made so not by its length (at 7,119 yards, Philadelphia Cricket Club's rerouted Wissahickon is no monster) but by a blend of design and location. When the seniors came here in 2016, strong winds meant that nobody ended the week under-par. The holes themselves, none longer than about 550 yards, are subtly threatening; they appear set to tempt, and temptation is a fantastic way to test the world's very best. The shortest hole here is just 122 yards. Neither par-five gets close to 600 yards. It is going to be fascinating to see whether a course like this one, which does feature some longer par-fours which are sure to be demanding, can really stand up to the modern game. Whenever a new course with pedigree emerges on the PGA Tour, my first port of call is The Fried Egg, whose 2016 review notes generous driving areas throughout an 'intimate' front-nine versus a more 'expansive' back-nine. Andy Johnson wrote: "While a poor drive at the Wissahickon will rarely result in a penalty stroke, it will lead to an incredibly difficult shot due to angles and hazards around the green. In order to score well, players must hit their shots in the right spots of the fairway in order to leave the correct angle of approach to the challenging and well-protected green complexes." I suspect that granted the right weather – dry and breezy – this would've been a serious test, but that notion of wide landing areas combined with the rain which has fallen, and continues to fall, suggests perhaps not, especially with only limited breeze in the forecast. That there are only two par-fives ought to keep a lid on things, but Quail Hollow may well win that phoney scoring war at least. Soft conditions will always favour longer hitters but approach play is likely to be more important in unearthing the winner. Again, firmer greens would've helped a lot, but they are not large, they're often raised and very well-protected, and they're undulating enough to place an emphasis on hitting to the right part of them. Straight won in the windy seniors event but here, it might be more about the second shot. By now you'll just about know how these markets look and absent of Scheffler, who wouldn't take out perhaps as much as 20% of it, I'm pleasantly surprised to still be able to take prices around 20/1 about PATRICK CANTLAY. CLICK HERE to back Cantlay with Sky Bet He's an obvious pick in some ways, because his two wins in Ohio, one in Delaware and another in Baltimore confirm him dangerous in the northeastern corner of the US. That's not because of any local connection – he's a Californian who lives in Florida – but largely because he does prefer bentgrass greens, which we have here, and certainly likes classical golf courses. Two wins at the Memorial in neighbouring Ohio might provide some clues while his victory at Caves Valley, though particularly low-scoring, came under soft conditions. He's also been third at Bethpage and eighth at Ridgewood, these his sole starts at other noted Tillinghast designs, although I'd caution that some have said that Tillinghast course do vary a lot.

The thing I like most about Cantlay though is the state of his long-game. He's driving it just about as well as ever and has gained strokes with his approaches on each of his last seven starts. The problem has been the putter, but as if to underline how well he's striking it, his two best putting displays this year have both yielded top-five finishes. It's potentially significant that both came away from bermuda and after a Masters which was better than it looked (he played the 15th hole terribly, the rest of the course very well), there was plenty to be taken from 13th at Harbour Town. There, only a misfiring short-game hurt him and it does still worry me, but hopefully the change in course conditions brings out improvement. Certainly, Cantlay is a good bunker player (there are more bunkers here than at any other course on the PGA Tour so far this season) and among a collection of similar players who could all be labelled the biggest threat to Rory McIlroy, for my money he stands out as the pick. Can caddie provide golden touch again? Collin Morikawa's approach play might make this a good fit and he's a former Muirfield Village champion, too. He was also a bit unfortunate to miss the cut in the Zurich Classic as it was his partner who hit the destructive shots in Friday's foursomes, before which Morikawa had followed a good Masters with an admittedly poor RBC Heritage. Fascinatingly, he now has caddie Joe Greiner on the bag after it was Greiner who partnered Justin Thomas to win at Harbour Town. Greiner, who previously parted ways with Max Homa, will see his stock go through the roof if he now picks up another title on another new bag, but at 14/1 I don't believe Morikawa's price has budged enough for the upheaval which was brought about by a slightly quieter run. Xander Schauffele just hasn't done enough to convince me that he's about to strike ahead of his PGA Championship defence and while Jordan Spieth hit the ball as well as he has for many years in last week's Nelson, I do wonder how likely he is to back that up on this more penal course. Spieth is getting there, I'm sure of that, but something less competitive in every respect might be where it all comes together. I find it harder to fault Justin Thomas, who has won back-to-back before, but at twice the price it's HIDEKI MATSUYAMA who I rate the best value away from the very front of the market. CLICK HERE to back Matsuyama with Sky Bet Matsuyama has won six times over the last four years, that's once every 15 or 16 starts, and having been 28/1 for the Masters when we last saw him, it strikes me as a bit of an oversight to be quoting even a touch bigger without Scottie Scheffler and the pick of the LIV Golf brigade to compete against. That would make sense if his spring malaise had continued at Augusta, but Matsuyama showed heaps of promise there. Second in strokes-gained approach marked a return to form with the key part of his game – these were his best numbers since he won The Sentry – and yet again his work around the greens was of a very high standard.

Hideki Matsuyama

Chipping, pitching and bunker play have long been underrated parts of the Matsuyama skill set and if this course does rely on a blend of quality approaches and the ability to defy deep, penal bunkers and use imagination to access tricky pins, then it could just be that his game is made for it. There's no sense wasting time on trying to work out how he'll putt; all we can say is that putting really badly in Texas and then at the Masters needn't be an indication of what's to come. That's just Matsuyama, who once upon a time would've been at his best on bentgrass but these days is just impossible to predict, hence two top-five putting displays in his last 10 starts. He led the field in putting when winning at Southwind, not long after he'd ranked just about dead last in an Open Championship and been worse still in a Scottish Open, and last year's Riviera triumph came soon after a prolonged period of struggle which had just hinted at turning the corner in Phoenix. Maybe he turned the corner with a closing 66 in the Masters and certainly, there's plenty of upside in these prices. Two wins in Ohio and several more on bentgrass elsewhere, plus some generally encouraging form on these classical northeastern courses including 10th in the US Open at Merion many moons ago, all help shape my belief that he's a little overpriced. At risk of going all-in on a group of players who may collectively make precisely no putts outside of five feet, KEEGAN BRADLEY is next. CLICK HERE to back Bradley with Sky Bet Like Matsuyama, he's a past champion at Firestone and, hailing from this part of the US, these conditions are familiar to him. And while so far this year his best putting displays have come on bermuda greens, take a wider view and bentgrass is where that's most likely to happen. As well as winning at Firestone, Bradley is in fact a past champion here in Pennsylvania at the Donald Ross classic, Aronimink, as well as in Connecticut at the Travelers, and I was taken with a top-20 finish at Harbour Town given that he'd never previously cracked the top 40 here.

Keegan Bradley

Even by his standards, Bradley's long-game looks in top shape right now with five top-10 tee-to-green displays in his last eight. It was even good at Augusta, if not quite good enough to defy a bad putting week and make the cut, and he seems to be playing just as well as when he hit the frame for us at Bay Hill earlier in the year. Having been 55/1 there, backing him at the same price without Scheffler makes plenty of appeal and I'd be happy taking 40/1 and bigger about a player who loves these old, classical tests, and who continues to work towards earning himself redundancy as the US Ryder Cup captain. There are a host of sleeping giants in this field, the likes of Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala, Matt Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris for example. All four are tempting having shown flashes of promise lately, but the only one I came close to chancing was Zalatoris, who admittedly has some improving to do having last cracked the top 10 more than a year ago. That was at the Masters, which explains why he was a much shorter price back at Augusta two starts ago than he is now, and having failed miserably there I do understand the drift. But his approach work fired again at Harbour Town (eighth) and it's just four starts since he was bang in the mix during round three of The PLAYERS, prior to which he'd played well at Torrey Pines and Bay Hill. A carrot is being dangled by a couple of firms given his likely suitability to a course where the deemphasis on driving meets an emphasis on approach play, and he has some excellent form in this part of the US (fifth Memorial in Ohio, second US Open in Massachusetts, sixth US Open at Winged Foot in New York). Zalatoris withdrew from the Nelson last week and his history of injury problems coupled with the fact that he lives in Dallas is a red flag, but he was out on the course on Monday and prioritising this fortnight over the Nelson isn't a difficult thing to understand. He was the last player off my list and I wouldn't put anyone off taking the standout 100/1. Day and Denny round of staking plan My preference though is to take the general 50s about JASON DAY. CLICK HERE to back Day with Sky Bet I've felt all year that Day is close to winning again and regretted not siding with him at Augusta, where his dynamite short-game helped secure a top-10 finish on fast, undulating, bentgrass greens. Granted, his long-game will probably need to improve but it was very good when eighth at Bay Hill just four starts ago and I'm comfortable overlooking his one post-Masters start, because he's not the right type for Harbour Town and never will be.

Just a Tuesday with the lads in Augusta #TheMasters pic.twitter.com/fx7ldkyEuX — Jason Day (@JDayGolf) April 8, 2025

These classical courses in the northeastern states are much more his thing and have been for a long time. It's 12 years now since he was runner-up here in Pennsylvania in the US Open, by which point he'd already been among the chasing pack behind Rory McIlroy in Maryland, and he later went on to finish second again at Tillinghast's Baltusrol. Day's major win came in Wisconsin at a different type of golf course but he's got a fabulous record not far from here in New Jersey, where he won The Barclays a decade ago, and an old-fashioned, classical course which is demanding around the greens but offers width off the tee feels like the right kind of fit. Of course if this does boil down to a test of approach shots then he has something to find on several around the same kind of price, but ever since he went back to Col Swatton I've had this in mind as a place where it could pay to chance him. Playing poorly at Harbour Town helps with the price but has no bearing on his prospects, so let's stick to the plan. Finally, and perhaps this is some sort of subconscious antidote to the putting capabilities of some of those listed above, I want to be on DENNY MCCARTHY. CLICK HERE to back McCarthy with Sky Bet The best putter in this field, he shouldn't be too badly handicapped by his much weaker driving at this relatively short course, even under soft conditions, and the Maryland-born maiden might just get off the mark this week. He's been second and fifth in the Memorial, has a top-10 at the Travelers and produced his best ever major display when seventh behind Fitzpatrick and Zalatoris in Boston, while he also contended for this title when it moved to Potomac in Washington a couple of years ago.

If you have enjoyed watching Denny McCarthy make everything today, here's a little on his putting process from our podcast last September. pic.twitter.com/cwBj8Nz0Tp — Fried Egg Golf (@fried_egg_golf) June 4, 2023

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