3 of Europe’s struggling football champions still worth backing this season

Liverpool only face one top-five side in their next 11 Premier League games. Has their price drifted too much after recent losses?

League Winner Betting MarketsOddsLiverpool5.05Barcelona2.25Napoli3.25

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Why the Reds and Barca are the best value among the struggling defending champions

As things stand, only Bayern Munich and PSG seem to be strong contenders to retain their domestic titles in Europe’s ‘Big 5’. Liverpool started the season on a very strong note, winning their first five league games. However, three straight defeats have seen the Reds slip to third, four points shy of current leaders Arsenal.

Their 2-1 home defeat at the hands of Manchester United was a watershed moment. Long-serving skipper, Virgil van Dijk, said the team had a long pep talk after the loss to Ruben Amorim’s side.

It appeared to have the desired effect in their following Champions League game. Despite falling behind early to Eintracht Frankfurt, the Reds blitzed the German side 5-1 away from home by the end.

New striker, Hugo Ekitike, got himself on the scoresheet again, which has likely boosted his confidence. He may need to step up to the mark if Alexander Isak’s groin problem is worse than expected.

Isak’s fitness concerns are one of the main reasons the betting markets are questioning Liverpool right now. They believe the Reds only have an 18.18% chance of retaining their title, but this seems too short considering their upcoming run of fixtures.

They only face one team currently inside the top five of the Premier League in their next 11 games. That’s a home game with Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.

However, they have a double-header with newly-promoted Leeds, as well as Sunderland, Wolves, Nottingham Forest and West Ham. Sunderland aside, these sides are struggling for form right now.

Barcelona are only two points off the pace in the 2025/26 La Liga table. They are still the league’s top scorers, with 24 goals in nine games. They’ve already built a five-point cushion between themselves and third-placed Villarreal.

Hansi Fick’s side have reacted impressively to their shock 4-1 loss at Sevilla. They won at home to Girona before hammering Olympiacos 6-1 in the Champions League on Tuesday.

The imminent first El Clasico of the La Liga season could be make-or-break for Barca’s title chances. Defeat at the Bernabeu would see Xabi Alonso’s Real move five points clear before Halloween.

Barca also face tough trips to Celta Vigo and Real Betis in their next five games, who are both notoriously strong at home. They also welcome Athletic Bilbao to the Olympic Stadium, who are only three points behind third-placed Villarreal.

Given that Barca’s season may already be hanging by a threat, it may be wiser to wait before backing them. Holding back until the outcome of Sunday’s El Clasico may be a safer option.

Defeat would see their odds drift significantly, while a victory may see them move only narrowly odds-on. At that price, they may still offer value with the momentum of a win over Real behind them.

Antonio Conte’s recent comments make us doubt Napoli’s chances

Last season’s Scudetto winners, Napoli, are just one point and two places behind current Serie A leaders, AC Milan. However, you wouldn’t know it judging by Antonio Conte’s comments.

Conte has questioned the club’s summer recruitment strategy. The serial winner has said it’s proving harder than expected to integrate all nine new faces into the squad.

Those comments came after being humbled 6-2 by PSV in the Champions League on Tuesday night. However, the Partenopei did finish the game with ten men.

Like Barca, the direction of Napoli’s season may rest on their next result. They host second-placed Inter this weekend, who are only above them on goal difference.

The betting markets currently give Conte’s men a 30.77% chance of retaining their title. A win against Inter would boost Napoli’s new signings, helping them build chemistry both on and off the pitch.

At this moment, it looks like Liverpool are the obvious defending champions to back in the outright markets. It’s probably better to hold off on backing Barca and Napoli and see how the next couple of weeks pan out.

+

Click here to read article