Does Lions GM Brad Holmes have a reach problem in the NFL Draft?

The Detroit Lions have not shied away from bold moves in the NFL draft under general manager Brad Holmes. Whether it’s a 20-spot trade-up in the first round to grab a speedy wide receiver coming off a torn ACL or throwing positional value into the trash by grabbing a running back with the 12th overall pick, the Lions have ruffled some feathers and bucked some norms over the years.

It’s hard to argue with the results. The Lions have turned around their franchise in a matter of years and are poised to enter the 2025 NFL season with a top-three roster in the league.

Yet the criticisms continue. This year, the Lions received some of the worst draft grades for their 2025 NFL Draft class, and this time, the complaints mostly converged on one point: they reached.

According to Arif Hasan’s 2025 NFL Draft consensus big board, all of Detroit’s first three picks in 2025 were considered mild to massive reaches.

Tyleik Williams ranked 41 on the big board; the Lions got him 28th — 13-pick reach

Tate Ratledge was 66th on the big board; the Lions traded up and got him 57th — 9-pick reach

Isaac TeSlaa was 171st; the Lions spent massive draft capital to trade up and get him 70th — 101-pick reach

At the time of the pick, the TeSlaa selection was the biggest reach in the 2025 NFL Draft, per Hasan’s board.

Who cares, though? What does a bunch of media mock drafts mean when it comes to reality? Well, it turns out it could mean something. PFF put Hasan’s consensus board to the test and concluded...

“The major takeaway here is that after removing the bias for quarterbacks, the consensus is just as good as the NFL draft at ranking prospects, at least for the first three rounds of the draft.”

But, as always, there are outliers. Some teams are just better at drafting than others. Is Brad Holmes one of them? He’s already bested other analytical data. Could this be the next in line?

Reaching isn’t new for Holmes. So, let’s look at some of the biggest reaches in his past and see how those picks have turned out.

Day 1 and 2 “reaches”

We’re going to keep most of our focus on the first three rounds. That’s both because the consensus big board performs the best during this span and because making a mistake this early in the draft is much more costly than later. Picking the 30th-best prospect with the 10th overall pick is a significantly bigger sin than picking the 230th-ranked prospect at 210, despite both being a 20-player “reach.”

So let’s examine each of Holmes’ Day 1 and 2 reaches, ranked from biggest to smallest:

For reference, you can look at each of Hasan’s big boards here:

Brodric Martin

Selected: 96th overall

Big board: 260th overall

Reach: 164 picks

The Lions’ biggest Day 1 or 2 reach in the Holmes era is also regularly regarded as Detroit’s worst pick under him. Martin has played in just five games, and looking at the roster heading into 2025, he has some work to do even to make the team. This reach was compounded by the fact that Holmes traded up to get him—sending away two fifth-round picks to jump 26 spots.

Jack Campbell

Selected: 18th

Big board: 44th

Reach: 26 picks

The book is still out on Campbell, but I think it’s fair to say the Lions do not at all regret this move. While Campbell’s stats aren’t gaudy for a first-round pick, he has started 29 games in two seasons and showed marked improvement last year. By all accounts, he seems to be the team’s MIKE linebacker of the future, so things are headed in the right direction here.

Josh Paschal

Selected: 46th

Big board: 70th

Reach: 24 picks

Heading into the final year of his rookie deal, Paschal hasn’t quite lived up to his draft billing. While he was never viewed as a premier pass rusher, his 5.0 sacks to date still remain a disappointment—especially considering he has only shown flashes of being a weapon in run defense. Paschal’s future in Detroit is likely highly dependent on how he performs in 2025.

Sam LaPorta

Selected: 34th

Big board: 51st

Reach: 17 picks

LaPorta almost immediately showed why he should have been the first tight end selected in the 2023 draft. While he took a mild step back last year—likely due to an early season injury—LaPorta remains a top-10 tight end in this league, and he’s probably in the top half of that list.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Selected: 12th

Big board: 25th

Reach: 13 picks

Gibbs, too, proved the consensus board wrong. He’s already worked himself into the top-five running back conversation, and he’s an essential part of what makes the Lions offense special. Big win for Holmes.

Alim McNeill

Selected 72nd

Big Board: 80th

Reach: 8 picks

McNeill was only considered a mild reach, and Holmes proved right on that one, as well. McNeill signed a contract extension in October that paid him among the top-five defensive tackles in football.

Levi Onwuzurike

Selected: 41st

Big board: 43rd

Reach: 2 picks

The reach here isn’t significant enough to really discuss the pick. The Lions haven’t gotten the value they probably wanted with this pick, but that’s been partially decided by something the board nor the Lions could have predicted: a massive back injury. Still, with Onwuzurike re-signed this year, there’s a potential this could turn out to be a draw or win in Detroit’s favor.

Day 3 reaches:

Giovanni Manu (fourth round)

Selected: 126th

Big board: Not in top 300

Reach: At least 174 picks

Holmes’ biggest swing in any draft is still an unknown. Manu was considered a long-term project, and we knew a red-shirt rookie season was coming. Holmes’ biggest gamble is just a TBD at this point.

Colby Sorsdal (fifth round)

Selected: 152nd

Big board: Not in top 300

Reach: At least 148 picks

Sorsdal has failed to find his footing in two seasons in Detroit. While he made three starts his rookie season, he only made one game appearance last year after moving back to tackle. He now has work to do to make the 2025 roster.

James Houston (sixth round)

Selected: 217th

Big Board: Not in top 300

Reach: At least 83 picks

Even though Houston is no longer on the roster—or any NFL roster—this is still probably a win for Holmes, given Houston’s incredible finish to the 2022 season. An eight-sack season is more than you typically get from the entire career of a sixth-round pick.

Antoine Green (seventh round)

Selected: 219th

Big board: 264th

Reach: 45 picks

Green remains on the roster but is a long shot to ever make an impact on the team. He made nine game appearances in 2023, which isn’t all that big of a miss in the seventh round.

James Mitchell (fifth round)

Selected: 177th

Big board: 216th

Reach: 39 picks

I would call Mitchell a moderate miss from Holmes. There was hope after his ACL injury was behind him, the Lions could find some serious untapped potential. However, he never managed to win the TE2 job and eventually even lost the TE3 job. While he had 30 game appearances for Detroit, he only managed 25 snaps last season before signing with the Panthers this offseason.

Derrick Barnes (fourth round)

Selected: 113th

Big board: 148th

Reach: 35 picks

Barnes has been one of Holmes’ best success stories on the third day of the draft. A bit of a developmental project for someone new to the linebacker position, Barnes beat expectations and earned himself a healthy extension this offseason.

Sione Vaki (fourth round)

Selected: 132nd

Big board: 151st

Reach: 19 picks

Only a minor reach here, but so far, so good as a very valuable special teamer in the middle of the draft.

Conclusions

Overall, I don’t see too much of a bad habit here. Small reaches on Days 1 and 2 have mostly worked in Holmes’ favor, with big wins from the LaPorta, Gibbs, and McNeil “reaches.”

However, Holmes’ biggest swings in the draft have either been his worst picks or are still TBD. Brodric Martin, Colby Sorsdal, and Giovanni Manu are his biggest swings, and it appears it’s strikes one and two with Martin and Sorsdal.

So, relating to the Lions’ 2025 draft class, I think there are some very warranted concerns about the Isaac TeSlaa pick, given it’s a 101-pick reach—his second biggest in the first two days of the draft. And like the Martin and Manu picks, Holmes compounded the risk with a costly trade-up for TeSlaa.

Holmes has yet to find success with an outlier pick like that—although we’ll see with Manu.

As for the Tyleik Williams and Tate Ratledge reaches, those are minor enough to have little to no concern about. Holmes has actually shown that small reaches like that have worked in his favor.

One final note

It’s worth noting that while Holmes has a small pattern of reaches in his history, he has found just as many “steals” by the big board’s standards. Here are some of Holmes’ best picks made, and how much of a “steal” it was:

Christian Mahogany — 117-pick steal

Mekhi Wingo — 80-pick steal

Amon-Ra St. Brown — 43-pick steal

Brian Branch — 29-pick steal

Ennis Rakestraw — 21-pick steal

Malcolm Rodriguez — 18-pick steal

Terrion Arnold — 12-pick steal

Hendon Hooker — 11-pick steal

This year is the same. While they took a big swing on TeSlaa, they also got really good value in Miles Frazier (56-pick steal),

So, again, this doesn’t appear to really be a pattern of bad behavior. The biggest concern is Holmes’ biggest swings. And while they have been pretty infrequent overall, he has made four massive swings in the past three of his drafts: Giovanni Manu, Brodric Martin, Colby Sorsdal, and now Isaac TeSlaa.

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